Consistent with recession probability models, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced in mid-July that the recession triggered by the public healthcare crisis ended in April 2020 and that an economic expansion has been underway since. Accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and expanding vaccinations across the country have boosted business activity and hiring. While key labor-market gauges have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, all the real output lost to the coronavirus was recovered by the spring...

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